Factors associated to the duration of COVID-19 lockdowns in chile. Scientific Reports

Abstract

During the frst year of the COVID-19 pandemic, several countries have implemented non-pharmacologic measures, mainly lockdowns and social distancing, to reduce the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. These strategies varied widely across nations, and their efcacy is currently being studied. This study explores demographic, socioeconomic, and epidemiological factors associated with the duration of lockdowns applied in Chile between March 25th and December 25th, 2020. Joint models for longitudinal and time-to-event data were used. In this case, the number of days under lockdown for each Chilean commune and longitudinal information were modeled jointly. Our results indicate that overcrowding, number of active cases, and positivity index are signifcantly associated with the duration of lockdowns, being identifed as risk factors for longer lockdown duration. In short, joint models for longitudinal and time-to-event data permit the identifcation of factors associated with the duration of lockdowns in Chile. Indeed, our fndings suggest that demographic, socioeconomic, and epidemiological factors should be used to defne both entering and exiting lockdown.